Sorry it’s really last minute this year but there’s lots to discuss. Popular movies and popular performers are filling all the major categories, but it wouldn’t be the Oscars without a little controversy over the unfathomable inclusion across the board of Roma, the little foreigin indie film on Netflix that tied for the most nominations of the night that throws everything into wild card status. So look for a complicated mess of the usual political, insiders, PC, and desire to appear “artistic” to go for an unpredictable evening. Me, I’m hampered by sense and honestly, take these predictions with a grain of salt for your popcorn tonight.
BEST FILM
First, this whole “nominate 46 pictures because you weren’t smart enough to nominate The Dark Knight a decade ago” is crap. It dilutes the field and allows too many stray votes to spoil. This season is a most interesting lot, which actually listened to the most versatile selection of popular movies in years. From box office giant Black Panther, to popular musicals Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star is Born, bodice ripper dramady The Favourite, political-skewering and power-acted Vice, and a variety of well done race related films in If Beale Street Could Talk, BlacKkKlansman, and The Green Book. But Netflix indie foreign film Roma is racking up a slew of last minute momentum awards, and if this ambiguous black and white film tops all the box office behemoths, it is flat out bull. It is the academy falling back on that arty farty shit of “oh we’re so deep, look at us going for art over dollars”. This is a slap in the face to every other nomination. My personal choice wavers between Rhapsody, Green Book, and Vice. But Vice despite clever writing and directing and amazing performances all around is too political and controversial. Rhapsody relies too heavily on the charming performance by star Romy Makek. Green Book, while having some backlash because white guy Viggo Mortenson has to save black musical genius Marhershala Ali, it is the all-around strongest movie on all fronts. If the academy has sense, they’ll pick the Green Book, if they’re up to their old self-indulgent nonsense, look for a pseudo-sweep for Roma. Should win: The Green Book; Will win: Roma
My personal choice wavers between Rhapsody, Green Book, and Vice. If the academy has sense, they’ll pick the Green Book. If they’re up to their old self-indulgent nonsense, look for a pseudo-sweep for Roma.
BEST ACTOR
This is a two-player game, between Christian Bale as Dick Cheney and Romy Malek as Freddie Mercury, both giving phenomenal performances under all kinds of makeup and prosthetics. But Bale, who already has a supporting actor award for The Fighter is in the more controversial film and is the less likeable performer. Malek is a media darling who has been pounding the awards press circuit. Personally Bale who is unrecognizable as Cheney gives a brilliant performance, but Malek makes for the sentimental favorite and the better speech. Should Win: Christian Bale; Will win: Romy Malek
BEST ACTRESS
From all the awards circuit, the most universal vote is Glenn Close for The Wife. Olivia Coleman is hilarious and heart breaking as a used and beleaguered Queen Anne in The Favorite. But Close has inexcusably never won and will get the career award for the film four people saw. Should Win (and should have won several others): Glenn Close; Will win: Glen Close
SUPPORTING ACTOR
He has an unfair advantage that his role is not a supporting one, but a costarring lead, which gives him much more time and material, but it doesn’t matter. Mahershala Ali owns this for The Green Book. Should Win: Mahershala Ali; Will Win: Mahershala Ali
SUPORTING ACTRESS
This is honestly the strongest category of the night (except the unfathomable inclusion of the woman form Roma who literally does nothing any community theatre actress doesn’t). Emma Stone turns in the best work of her career, but she already won for the lamest work of her career in that La La Land nonsense. Rachel Weisz is her equal in The Favourite. Amy Adams is amazing as Lynn Chaney but is constantly overlooked because she makes everything look so easy and effortless. Regardless, Regina King is an industry favorite for good reasons and her strong, dignified performance in Beale Street is no exception. It’s hers to lose. Should Win: Regina King; Will Win; Regina King
DIRECTOR
In a strong field, Alfonson Cuaron is making a surge for the award for his low-tone work on Roma. But BlacKkKlansman is Spike Lee’s first nomination and truly one that he deserves. Klansman has a look, feel, and lesson to it that only Lee could bring. Lee usually runs hot or cold with me, but this one he hits his stride and made the most impact on his film. I fear this Roma nonsense train. Should Win: Spike Lee; Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron
BlacKKKlansman has a look, feel, and lesson to it that only Lee could bring. Lee usually runs hot or cold with me, but this one he hits his stride and made the most impact on his film.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
This is the stronger of the two categories, and also includes the baffling inclusion of Roma which apparently was just a series of descriptions scribbled BEST down on paper. It’s slow and devoid of dialogue (i.e., Euro-atsy) and could be the spoiler. Vice is clever and smart in its storytelling, The Favourite witty in that British drawing room way, and The Green Book the most conventional compromise, which takes nothing from it. If Roma wins, it’s a joke. Should Win: Vice; Will Win: The Green Book
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
All the heavy hitters are in the original category. Could Klansman give Spike Lee a consolation award for not getting director? Beale Street takes the tricks of Moonlight and elevates them with more professional flair. Bradley Cooper could take the consolation prize for losing his early Star is Born favorite son status. But this could be the upset of the evening with a sole win for Can You Ever Forgive Me? Should Win: BlackKkansman; Will Win: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
BEST COSTUMES
The academy rarely gets this award right (remember the year the art-deco spendor of Victor/Victoria lost to the bandwagon of Ghandi for a bunch of sheets?), and this will be no different. Black Panther created an exotic, vibrant, never-before-seen superhero universe, but the more predictable win will go to the admittedly sumptuous courtier world in navy blue and ivory created for The Favourite. And because not only do superhero movies get no credit, but also because Black Panther is Disney. Should Win: Black Panther; Will Win: The Favourite
BEST MAKEUP
If only for burying Christian Bale beyond recognition in Dick Cheney drag. Should Win: Vice; Will Win; Vice
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Somehow Roma is inexplicably included here, but the race should be between Black Panther and The Favourite for the exact same reasons as costumes. Expect the exact same results. Should Win: Black Panther; Will Win: The Favourite
BEST SOUND
Joke of the night and predictor of the bandwagon, Roma is nominated and has about 9 words of dialogue and zero background music or sound effects. Black Panther is again the answer, but look for the more safe Bohemian Rhapsody to win. If Roma rides the bandwagon, the awards are officially a joke. Should Win: Black Panther; Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody
BEST FOREIGN FILM
What’s the question? It’s the only foreign film nominated for best picture. Let’s hope the buck stops here as it should with the honest win. Should Win: Roma; Will Win: Roma
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Even if Disney had a chance, they split their audience with The Incredibles 2 and Ralph Wrecks the Internet. But Spiderman: Into the Spider-Verse is contemporary, smart, funny, perfectly cast, and incredibly well animated. Should Win: Spiderman: Into the Spider-Verse; Will Win: Spiderman: Into the Spider-Verse
BEST DOCUMENTARY
With the inexcusable omission of Three Identical Strangers, there’s only one way to go with Justice Ginsberg. Should Win: RGB; Will Win; RGB
BEST SONG
It’s Lady Gaga’s “Shallow” and a bunch of songs that aren’t Disney and one inferior one that is. Sorry, Lin Manuel-Minranda, this isn’t your year for the EGOT. Should Win: “Shallow”; Will win: “Shallow”