I apologize that my yearly Oscar analysis is so last minute this year but I just realized the Awards are this weekend, almost a month early. Fortunately, I’ve seen most of the films on original release with not a lot of catching up to do, and there doesn’t seem to be a lot of mystery this year because every major awards ceremony has been in agreement on every major award save one. However, it’s at least mildly interesting that the category is the big one where there has been a split between well-done conventional war film 1917 and standout Korean film Parasite. Here’s the comparisons:
BEST FILM
First, this whole “nominate 46 pictures because you weren’t smart enough to nominate The Dark Knight a decade ago” is crap. It dilutes the field and allows too many stray votes to spoil. This season seriously could be an old-fashioned five picture field. Ford v Ferrari, the Irishman, and Little Women are just very good films, not award winners. Neither is Marriage Story, which is just Hollywood loving Hollywood people doing Hollywood “actor’s movies”. Also, shame on the Academy for leaving the tenth slot open as a slap in the face to Rocketman, which was way more original and better executed than eight of the nominated nine. Or how about at least filling it with feel-good Yesterday, the unassuming and heartwarming “what if the world forgot the Beatles” fantasy? It was a lone winner game in the beginning as 1917 turned in a great sweeping moving war epic, complete Awards bait. Even though its only competitor, Parasite, received early critical buzz, it was just shades of that heaped upon Roma, and look how that sweep overhype turned out. But Parasite, a complex movie that morphs genres seamlessly 4 times throughout has picked up momentum late in the game, most notably with a big win from the SAG awards, who make up the largest block of the voters from the Academy. 1917 is a standard, well done, grand, sweeping war story, but its not an amazing film. It’s a very good film with amazing conception and execution by an amazing director with an amazing vision of how to film it. Parasite is a film with a great vision, a great screenplay, great characters, great performances, and great execution. The safe call is 1917, because Parasite will win the inevitable Best Foreign Film as a consolation prize. The bold and honest choice is Parasite for the big win also. I’ve been a proponent since I saw the movie six months before nominations came out. I stick with my guns but won’t be surprised if Hollywood punks out.
Should win: Parasite; Will win: Parasite; Spoiler: 1917
Got Robbed: Rocketman
BEST ACTOR
There really is no choice here. New age Hollywood will push Adam Driver in anything, but, love him or hate him as controversial as he is, Joaquin Phoenix’s alternate universe portrayal of a mentally ill contemporary Joker is virtually unbeatable. Plus I consider this a make-up award that they owe him for Walk the Line, where he learned to play guitar, sing, and become Johnny Cash, but they focused all the attention on class favorite Phillip Seymour Hoffman in an offensively limp-wristed, stereotyped performance as Truman Capote. To make matters worse, they awarded best actress that year to costar and then golden girl Reese Witherspoon, who couldn’t have been less June Carter if she was a 70 year old black man. Not to mention his best competition of the season, star-to-be Taron Egerton, stellar as Elton John (who did everything last year’s winner did at least as well plus actually sang in a fantastic Elton John-ian way), wasn’t even nominated.
Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix; Will win: Joaquin Phoenix
Got Robbed: Taron Egerton
BEST ACTRESS
Charlize Theron gives an amazing performance becoming present day icon Megyn Kelly in Bombshell that would sweep any other year. But Renée Zellweger pulls the carpet out from under everyone in the field with the performance of her career as über-icon of all time Judy Garland in her last, decrepit, tragic in every meaning of the word days. Theron is performance of the year, Zellweger is performance of her life.
Should Win: Renée Zellweger; Will win: Renée Zellweger
SUPPORTING ACTOR
This category is four old men who Hollywood loves and one actor giving the best performance of the year. Of the other nominees, only Joe Pesci deserves a slot as a mob boss in The Irishman. Hanks, Hopkins, and Pacino received “thank you for being you” nods. Pacino’s nomination is particularly embarrassing for his anime cartoon performance as Jimmy Hoffa, who was a bigger than life character for sure. But Pacino simply makes him a continuation of the “Hoo-wah!!” guy that Hollywood embarrassingly gave him his career award for 20 years ago. He was less cartoonish as Big Boy Caprice in Dick Tracey, who was a literal cartoon. The maddening thing about this is that any of these slots, particularly Pacino’s, in another “Oscar so white” year should have gone to either Kang-ho Song or Sun-kyun Lee as the working class and upper class fathers in Parasite, rich layered performances that translate a language barrier. Which all means that Brad Pitt having the time of his life as a charismatic, loyal stunt man and sidekick who rearranges history in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is the only choice.
Should Win: Brad Pitt; Will Win: Brad Pitt
Got Robbed: Every Actor in Parasite
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This is an embarrassing, go-figure category, because Laura Dern has swept every award for a perfectly fine performance that is nothing she hasn’t shown better in every movie before as a California bitchy divorce lawyer in the inexplicably lauded Marriage Story. Margot Robbie is her usual amazing self in Bombshell, but she will win eventually for a better role that she will define á la costar Theron (and inexplicably, she was better in her non-nominated role as Sharon Tate in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood). Kathy Bates as Richard Jewell’s supportive mother and Scarlett Johansson giving a much better performance as the German mother of a junior Hitler youth in Jojo Rabbit are much better choices, but Dern will sweep because she is promoting the hell out of her campaign, all her friends are voting for her, all her award-winning parents award-winning friends are voting for her, and…you get it. Again, all Hollywood insider white women, where are all the amazing leading ladies of Parasite?
Should Win: Scarlett Johansson; Will Win: Laura Dern
Got Robbed: Every Actress in Parasite
DIRECTOR
In the strongest and most competitive field of the night, everyone excels in their own strengths. Martin Scorcese turns in another (final?) great gangster epic in The Irishman. Tarantino turns out another quirky, violent Tarantino film in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Todd Phillips explores dark corners of mental illness in Joker. But it boils down to Sam Mendes’ breathtaking staging of 1917 as a series of painstakingly staged single camera shot sequences, and Bong Joon Ho’s character rich exploration of class differences in Parasite. Honestly, here’s the compromise, Ho gave us the best movie, but Mendes’ film is a success because he did something only he could do.
Should Win: Sam Mendes; Will Win: Sam Mandes; Spoiler: Bong Joon Ho
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
There a couple of gimme nominations here, most notably Marriage Story which is nothing but another stock, schlock story of 30-somethings who have everything yet (boo-frickety-hoo) can’t make their marriage work, and 1917, which for heaven’s sake only has about 9 words of dialogue in it. Knives Out is a clever old-fashioned murder mystery with a wit we seldom see on screen anymore, and Tarantino gives us another clever and very original quirky, alternate spin on reality in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. But Bong Joon Ho has given us a story and adventure that jumps across the subtitles and does something that has never been awarded for. A Tarantino win wouldn’t surprise me, but I have to stick with my guns on how strong I feel Parasite is.
Should Win: Parasite; Will Win: Parasite; Spoiler: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Joker is an entirely new and original spin on a story we all think we know, but the rest are stock honors for high profile pictures. The sole creative entry this year is Taika Waititi’s highly original story of a bright-faced Hitler youth who learns the truth, Jojo Rabbit.
Should Win: Jojo Rabbit; Will Win: Jojo Rabbit
BEST COSTUMES
The academy rarely gets this award right (remember the year the art-deco splendor of Victor/Victoria lost to the bandwagon of Ghandi for a bunch of sheets?), and this will be no different. There are several films that nail this by making it look too easy, particularly the deceptively difficult perfection of 60s/70s looks achieved in The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. But the only film that does it with any degree of grandeur is Little Women, and here’s a way to toss a bone at favorite daughter Greta Gerwig in a film that otherwise has no chances. Don’t rule out Joker, although it’s only a one costume show, they nail that costume in a familiar yet natural and updated way in the period 70s.
Should Win: Little Women; Will Win: Little Women
BEST MAKEUP
Again, since competition Joker is only one amazing make-up job but it’s dead on, as is one great transformation of Zellweger in Judy (but remember Meryl Streep in Iron Lady), and Disney gets no respect so Maleficent should be happy with the nomination, the champion is the dead-on transformations to the entire staff of Fox News in Bombshell. John Lithgow is unrecognizable as Richard Ailes, Nicole Kidman perfect as Gretchen Carlson, and Theron is actually Megyn Kelly.
Should Win: Bombshell; Will Win: Bombshell
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Actually, this is the strongest field of the night, unfortunately in a tech award most people will never see awarded live. The techies who nominate don’t play the Hollywood favorite game the big categories do. Every nominee nails a perfect visual of its subject: the cool East coast “Mad Men” era pastel casuals of The Irishman, heyday Nazi Germany in Jojo Rabbit, the hell of WWI in 1917, the suave Hollywood of the pre-Manson hours of Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and a breathtaking interior modern mansion (designed and built, not locale) and locations of working class South Korea in Parasite. Any should win, but the first rule of the Oscars is Hollywood loves Hollywood.
Should Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood; Will Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
BEST SOUND
Ford v Ferrari scores big with balancing the noise of the racetrack with the drama unfolding there, but 1917 will take the bulk of the nondescript tech awards.
Should Win: Ford v Ferrari; Will Win: 1917
BEST EDITING
Thankfully, they got one thing right and excluded behemoth 1917 from this category because its accomplishment is actually it’s not being edited. On the other hand, The Irishman clocks in at over 3 ½ hours, with over 30 minutes after the climax of the film remaining. Did they even pretend to edit it? Ford v Ferrari somehow makes 200 laps look thrilling and sexy. A great movie that has few other chances should be honored here.
Should win: Ford v. Ferrari; Will win: Ford v. Ferrari
BEST FOREIGN FILM
The only candidate nominated for best picture is a slam dunk. But it should be a dual win, not a consolation prize.
Should Win: Parasite; Will Win: Parasite
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Even if it didn’t ruin the entire perfect Toy Story universe, it takes a lot to beat a Disney film in this category, and even more to beat a Pixar. With its bigger profile entry Frozen 2 out of the running (note: not a snub; that was a bigtime money grab that should have gone straight to video), the by far worst of the Toy Story franchise has the field to itself.
Should Win: Toy Story 4; Will Win: Toy Story 4
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Logic would think that double nominee Honeyland, also nominated for best foreign language film, would get the consolation prize here since its up against international juggernaut Parasite.But the clash of cultures when intrinsically and tech driven China take over a working class American Ohio plant in American Factory is very topical in this particular election year, and we know Hollywood likes to make its politics known.
Should Win: American Factory; Will Win: American Factory; Spoiler: Honeyland
Got Robbed: Linda Ronstadt: The Sound of My Voice Wholesome loses to everything even when it’s a wonderful testament to the most talented voice of this lifetime. And when all America shows up to watch a documentary in the theatres, they’ve done something right.
BEST SONG
Since all the Disney entries are watered–down versions of much better previous winning songs and scores, here is the single category to honor Sir Elton John in the most overlooked movie of the year.
Should Win: I’m Gonna Love Me Again” (Rocketman); Will win: “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” (Rocketman)
And for those interested, my personal top 10 movies of the year are as follows:
- Yesterday
- Parasite
- Bombshell
- Rocketman
- Linda Ronstadt: The Sound of My Voice
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- 1917
- Jojo Rabbit
- The Irishman
- Joker
Note: Every other installment of the Toy Story franchise was top three, usually the best of their respective year. (The original should have won the best picture award in ’96.) This year isn’t that strong. That’s how badly they botched 4.