Oscar weekend has sidled up upon us again and I still don’t feel we’re as enthused as we used to be pre-covid. I certainly am not. Not only does everything still suffer from the cold reality of covid, but movie attendance hasn’t fully resumed so the art isn’t even appreciated for what it is at this point. Needless to say, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences is trying a more normal format this year, incorporating the glamour and the trappings of the past. Back at the Dolby Theatre, complete with red carpet and a trio of women hosts, will it have the same impact after last year’s train station trainwerck? We’ll see. I personally am still a little underwhelmed and feel that my own awards here, the Marcos for streaming movies, TV, and theatre, are in a way more pertinent to our common experience than rich people giving rich people awards for movies we didn’t see. Fortunately I saw most of the nominees doing research for the Marcos, and only had 2-3 curiosities I elected to check out (free streaming, not in the theatre). So here’s my odds for the winners, for anyone who trusts me to influence your office pool.
BEST PICTURE
Should Win: Coda
Will Win: Coda
Spoiler: The Power of the Dog
Got Robbed: Shang Chi & the Ten Rings
It’s no secret I loved Being the Ricardos, which turned out to be the superior movie one didn’t expect, not an exercise in the antics of on screen clown Lucille Ball, but the behind the scenes politics of one particular week where Lucy was branded a communist by Walter Winchell, putting the fate of the comedienne, the show, and, quite honestly, the future of comedy in jeopardy. The takeaway were wonderfully nuanced performances of all 4 actors playing beloved characters, with a special emphasis on how smart and business savvy Desi & Lucy were, and how influential on the future of TV production their Desilu conglomerate was, as well as the fact that through it all and all their problems, they absolutely loved each other. But then I saw Coda, which is a beautifully nuanced story of a child of deaf adults and the challenges it poses on her and her family. But Jane Campion’s Power of the Dog has a loyal following and she enough support that it could nose ahead at the wire. Shame on the academy for ignoring Shang Chi, the Marvel Asian equivalent of the highly and rightly lauded Black Panther, with leading man Simu Liu turning in an equally compelling lead performance in the superior action movie. The fist major box office hit of the year, ignoring it also eliminated a slate of highly qualified Asian actors who deserved recognition. You have 10 freaking slots now because you effed up and didn’t nominate the fascinating Dark Knight ten years ago, and seemed to have learned nothing from that debacle.
BEST ACTOR
Should Win: Benjamin Cumberbatch
Will Win: Will Smith
Spoiler: Denzel Washington
Got robbed: Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley)
Cumberbatch turns in a deeply tortured performance in a favored film, but Hollywood loves when Hollywood box office royalty turns in a suddenly transformative performance (think Jamie Fox in Ray, Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side, or Julia Roberts in Erin Brockovich), even if it isn’t truly the best of the season. But Smith delivers shades we’ve never seen of him. But don’t count out Denzel with an amazing take on the tragic hero who somehow has a natural gift for making Shakespeare’s couplets and flowery prose sound downright conversational. Cooper, on the other hand, turns in a darkly compelling performance in a noir thriller that rivals any of the nominees, another superior job that seems to go unrecognized because of his matinee idol good looks.
BEST ACTRESS
Should Win: Nicole Kidman
Will Win : Jessica Chastain
Got robbed: Emilia Jones (Coda)
Kidman does the impossible in bringing one-of-a-kind comic icon Lucille Ball to vivid life in an unexpectedly taut story, But the chameleon-like Chastain, who somehow has never won an Oscar, delivers a riveting performance as Tammy Faye Bakker that would have been a cartoon in lesser hands. But how does Jones, the sympathetic central character of the frontrunner for best picture who glues the entire story together, not get a nomination for her critical role in its success? Corollary, I will never understand the Academy’s fascination with Penelope Cruz.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Should Win: Troy Kotsur
Will Win: Troy Kotsur
Spoiler: Kodi Smit-PcPhee
Earlier in the season, I wanted nothing more than for J.K. Simmons, who nails the abrupt abrasiveness and quick wit of William Frawley and his iconic TV counterpart Fred Mertz to win this one, but Kotsur gives a powerful performance reminiscent of costar Marlee Matlin’s Oscar winning debut in Children of a Lesser God, balancing his frustrations of running a business as a deaf man in a hearing world with the concern of a parent trying to let go of a hearing child who needs to move on. But don’t count out young Smit-McPhee in his grown-up debut as a bullied youth who delivers the big pay-off scene in the end.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Should Win: Ariana deBose
Will Win: Ariana deBose
Got Robbed: Marlee Matlin (Coda)
This is the one apparent “gimme” of the Oscar pool. DeBose has taken on another actress’ Oscar winning signature role, and made it her own. Plus Anita is award bait—the big production number (“America”), the big emotional number (“A Boy Like That”), and a rape scene by a gang of toxic males. Somehow deBose made one forget Moreno’s iconic performance when she’s in the same movie with her. With a movie debut in The Prom, a highly featured role on cult hit Schmigadoon, and this high profile featured role, this is deBose’s year. But how the Academy overlooked Matlin in a role just as sympathetic and crucial as Kotsur’s is baffling. Her final scene in the bedroom with Jones confessing her fears of raising a hearing daughter was enough to clench the award any other year.
BEST DIRECTOR
Should Win: Steven Spielberg
Will Win: Jane Campion
Spoiler: Joel Coen (The Tragedy of MacBeth)
Got Robbed: Sian Heder (Coda)
Spielberg did the impossible. Against all odds and public opinion, he reinvented a beloved classic musical for a new generation with a talented cast of unknowns and sacrificed none of the vitality of the original. But Campion’s screenplay takes on bigger themes of homophobia, misogyny, and toxic masculinity and wraps it in a quieter but showier exterior. Plus bonus points for being a woman director, and the first potential repeat winner. But Coen’s stark, stylized, almost noir approach to the cinematography of MacBeth sets the tone for Denzel’s vivid performance as a dark horse. And how does one write and produce the best movie but not get nominated for directing it
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Should Win: Drive My Car
Will Win: The Power of the Dog
It’s no Parasite, but Drive My Car is a better example of story telling, perhaps passed over by the language barrier (it’s Japanese in subtitles). But many are lumping Jane Campion’s screenplay with her direction and awarding the pair.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Should Win: Don’t Look Up
Will Win: Belfast
Spoiler: Licorice Pizza
Got Robbed: Being the Ricardos
This witty screenplay that shows just how little our government cares about us, just their own selfish interests plays right into Hollywood’s desire to never miss an opportunity to politically skewer the right (especially if it’s a jab at Trump), but perhaps the fact that they equally skewer the right in the process (an equally hilarious portrayal of a doddering, incompetent Biden-like VP) is enough to distance them. Kenneth Branagh seems to be the frontrunner with his feel-good screenplay, plus it could be a makeup award for not giving him Best Director. But don’t count out Paul Thomas Anderson’s quirky Licorice Pizza as a lifetime achievement award for a respected nominee who doesn’t have an award. The egregious oversight of the evening is how Aaron Sorkin’s screenplay for Being the Ricardos got passed over when it is the strong center on which many great performances rest. His fantastic screenplay showing the human sides of characters we all feel we know better than we do is the actual best screenplay of the year, no qualifiers needed. It should have been the clear winner.
EDITING
Should Win: Tick…Tick…Boom!
Will Win: Dune
Got Robbed: West Side Story
Again, the Academy on the whole doesn’t understand how crucial editing is to a modern musical, so give it to the big splashy sci-fi movie like always.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Should Win: West Side Story
Will Win: West Side Story
Spoiler: The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of MacBeth
The Power of the Dog utilizes that broad, sweeping Broke Back Mountain-like photography that wins for power, but there’s nothing harder than filming a busy musical without it feeling either stagnant, standing and worshiping the dance throughout, or manic with a million MTV-inspired cuts. West Side Story strikes the line with fluidity and flair. But the stark black & white filming of MacBeth with its high vaulted sets and purposeful deliberate pools of light and shadow could upset both.
SET DESIGN
Should Win: The Tragedy of MacBeth
Will Win: The Tragedy of MacBeth
Spoiler: Dune
For all its strengths, aside form Denzel and Frances’ highly conversational Shakespeare, the most memorable thing about the show is its giant stark sets, seemingly unlimited vaulted ceilings and cool, deliberately placed precise pools of light and shadow to convey the darkness and vast emptiness of the residents’ souls is the stuff of old school cinema. But a more modern case could be made for the opposite, just the scale and detail of the sets for Dune
SOUND DESIGN
Should Win: West Side Story
Will Win: No Time to Die
One would think the flawless balance between orchestra, vocals, and background would be the benchmark for West Sdie, but this award usually tends to reward action movies and gunshots more than appreciate the talent necessary for musicals, so give it to the Bond film.
COSTUME DESIGN
Should Win: Cruella
Will Win: Cruella
For good old fashioned high couture creativity, the ascending Disney villainess takes the cake, sans puppy pelts, of course. Nothing really competes, and even the period frills of musical West Side Story and the 70s excesses of the PTL Empire in The Eyes of Tammy Faye pale to the House of DeVil.
HAIR & MAKEUP DESIGN
Should Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Will Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Spoiler: Cruella
Jessica Chastain is wonderful in this movie, but it honestly is a movie about hair and makeup, with the results transforming Chastain for an expected win.
VISUAL EFFECTS
Should Win: Spiderman, No Way Home
Will Win: Dune
Spiderman delivered amazing visuals between 3 alternate Spiderverses, but the effects are inspired by the action. Dune is a huge movie with effects inspired by the artistic design, which may tip the scales in favor of the intentional over the inspired.
DOCUMENTARY
Should Win: Summer of Soul
Will Win: Summer of Soul
Spoiler: Flee
Summer of Soul is the lost documentation of the other big New York music fest in the summer of ’69, the Harlem Cultural Festival in Mount Morris Park amassing over 300.000 spectators to celebrate black history and culture. Also filmed, this footage was inexplicably stored in a basement, ignored for 50 years until being unearthed for this documentary. The cultural significance that we were kept from alone should guarantee a win, then consider the entertainment value of never-before-seen footage of legends such as Stevie Wonder, Gladys Knight & the Pips, Mahalia Jackson, the 5th Dimension, and Nina Simone just the icing on the cake. Flee could be an upset for its inspired and unusual manner of storytelling.
ANIMATED FEATURE
Should Win: Raya & the Last Dragon
Will Win: Encanto
Spoiler: Flee
Got Robbed: My Hero Academia: World Heroes’ Mission
In a replay of last year when the inexplicably soulless Soul was the movie to beat over other superior Disney options. Even though we’re warned not to, everyone is talking about Bruno. The forerunner is the lackluster, mediocre story of a girl who isn’t her grandmother’s favorite feeling sorry for herself, with Hollywood favorite Lin Manuel Miranda providing an average score. The far superior, and at times breathtaking Raya & the Last Dragon received next to no press yet is a powerful action movie that clicks off some important representation blocks, like strong Asian characters, a female buddy film, cultural glorification, and two strong girl power leads as hero and villain. Throw in an inspired casting of the suddenly hot Awkwafina as the titular dragon, adding the same urban comic flair Eddie Murphy did to Mulan, and the focus of attention is staggering.
SONG
Should Win: “”No Time to Die” (No Time to Die)
Will Win: “”No Time to Die” (No Time to Die)
Unless it’s a mega-platimun, top 40 instant classic sung over the end credits (which with the state of top 40 radio hasn’t occurred in almost 40 years), I will always favor a song that is sung live in the movie that adds to the story of the movie, and that is the function “Dos Oruguitas”. Except when it is a lackluster, second rate musical song. It isn’t even the best in the score. I may have predicted a win for ear worm “We Don’t Talk About Bruno”. But with a Grammy win behind it, the Bond theme should repeat, and Lin will have to wait another year to round out his EGOT.
My Top 10 Films of the Year
1. Being the Ricardos
2. Coda
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
4. Shang Chi & the Ten Rings
5. King Richard
6. Nightmare Alley
7. West Side Story
8. Spencer
9. Don’t Look Up
10. The Tragedy of MacBeth
For those of you who missed my Marco Awards, the links are here::
The 2nd Annual Marco Awards for Movies
The 2nd Annual Marco Awards for TV
The 2nd Annual Marco Awards for Streaming and Live Theatre