Didn’t we just do this? Wasn’t just like 6 weeks ago that the Tony Committee just had to rush out a whole overblown half-assed awards ceremony to honor half a season from a year and a half ago with a pandering, lackluster, self-congratulatory night of nothing? Here’s the good news: it’s their 75th Anniversary of the Tonys and they want to throw a big salute to Broadway. The bad news? This whole overpraised 2022 season is nothing but the second half of what didn’t get a chance to open the last 10 weeks of the season that Covid closed the industry down. Can we let Broadway build up a little steam and get back on its feet before we go saluting mediocrity again?
Again, no really earth-shaking excitement this year. The only really new addition is 2022’s A Strange Loop, which is generating enough buzz over all the other mundane offerings that it will probably become a sweep. So because this is really yet again not a new season but another half of another old season, I’ve created a third conjecture for this year only. In addition to the “Should Win”s and the “Will Win”s, I included a “Would Have Won” category, if this had been one complete season and mixed in with last year’s half season, who would have won if they all went head to head , or we’d had complete categories last year.
So again, this year’s Tony predictions are done less out of passion, and more out of the dozens of office pools who rely on my opinions to make their educated choices. Pop the cork and cue Neil Patrick Harris…..
BEST MUSICAL
SHOULD WIN: A Strange Loop;
WILL WIN: A Strange Loop;
WOULD HAVE WON: Moulin Rouge
The second half of the season offered precious little in new musicals that didn’t open in 2020. Shows with high hopes like Girl From the North County and Flying Over Sunset bellied up. The big contender was the London import Six, a clever cult musical following the six wives of Henry VIII that has the distinction of (and a degree of sympathy for) being the show that was scheduled to open the evening New York shut down for Covid at 5:00. But being just a concert format with the book being just patter between theme songs leaves the plot a little light and opened the door for 2022 newcomer Strange Loop. But nothing this season would have beat Moulin Rouge the last great spectacle to come to NY in who knows how long?
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Six, which would make me happy, but it has about as much of a chance as Katheryn Howard making it out of the Tower of London.
BEST ACTOR
SHOULD WIN: Jacquel Spivey (A Strange Loop);
WILL WIN: Jacquel Spivey (A Strange Loop);
WOULD HAVE WON: Jacquel Spivey (A Strange Loop)
Spivey is the breakout star in the hot musical of the season. And if the Tony Committee, who has made a career out of disrespecting 2021 winner Aaron Tveit (as the sole nominee), had had any other candidate available, he’d never have won then either. I’m still surprised he got the 60% vote needed unopposed to not throw out the category last year.
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Myles Frost is getting attention as Michael Jackson in MJ, but is it because of his talent or just an uncanny impression? And Tony is grateful to Hugh Jackman for bringing Hollywood to Broadway and hijacking ticket prices, so even though his reviews have been “Trouble”-some, don’t count him out.
BEST ACTRESS
SHOULD WIN: Sharon D. Clarke (Caroline or Change);
WILL WIN: Sharon D. Clarke (Caroline or Change):
WOULD HAVE WON: Adrienne Warren (Tina)
Clarke has the meatiest role of the season and makes the most of it. Clarke also doesn’t have a behemoth like Idina Menzel in her way like predecessor Tonya Pinkins did in 2004.
GOT ROBBED: The entire cast of Six, all strong leading ladies, especially Andrea Macasaet as a bitter Anne Boleyn with a grudge about losing her head and audience favorite Samantha Pauley as a sympathetic Katheryn Howard with a Britney Spears-like dance lament about a young woman who has always been preyed upon by grown men. Guess all six cancelled each other out. Another baby thrown out with the bath water was the gracious and dignified performance of Jenna de Waal in the disrespected Diana. It is possible for a performer to transcend their material.
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Newcomer Joaquina Kualukango is getting great press in Paradise Square, and even though they had to stretch from River City and back to manipulate the score of The Music Man to fit Sutton Foster’s particular talents, never underestimate her draw to the voters as a Broadway baby. But none of them could have beaten powerhouse Adrienne Warren who was Tina Turner in the real season match-up.
BEST FEATURED ACTOR
SHOULD WIN: Matt Doyle (Company);
WILL WIN: Matt Doyle (Company);
WOULD HAVE WON: Danny Burstein (Moulin Rouge)
Not a strong category and the appealing Doyle has the deck stacked in his favor with the comic highlight of the season, the cold feet panic “Not Getting Married Today” aided with the twist of being half a gay couple freaking out about monogamy, which opens all kinds of other doors. But, after a career of trying to make Tony happen, no one could have beaten Burstein in the showiest role of his life as the illustrious master of ceremonies at the Moulin Rouge.
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS
SHOULD WIN: Patti LuPone (Company); WILL WIN: Patti LuPone (Company); WOULD HAVE WON: Lauren Patten (Jagged Little Pill)
LuPone is the supporting player who is the true star of the revival and her 11:00 powerhouse delivery of “The Ladies Who Lunch” has given gay Broadway the opportunity to place their queen back on her pedestal. Nobody can beat the incomparable LuPone in a power role.
The head to head call was a rough one, because, again, LuPone is LuPone, but Patten’s performance was earthshaking, and especially after the obscene bullying she received form the trans community for her role, my sympathies lie with her.
BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
SHOULD WIN: The Music Man;
WILL WIN: Company;
WOULD HAVE WON: Company (there were no nominees in the category last year)
It was one thing when I picked Daniel Fish’s dark Oklahoma to win, but no one would ever have accused me of saying anything complimentary about Company. I’ve never understood the fascination with this piece, but the committee bites for it hard. And Hugh Jackman’s Music Man has the burden of justifying it’s $400 -$1000 ticket prices, while Company makes the voters feel smart and chic.
BEST DIRECTION
SHOULD WIN: Stephen Brackett (A Strange Loop);
WILL WIN: Marianne Elliott (Company):
WOULD HAVE WON: Alex Timbers (Moulin Rouge)
It was a long time coming across the pond and delayed by Covid, but New York was salivating for the new gender bent version of their old favorite Sondheim classic, so forget the newcomer who shaped and navigated this year’s best musical. But in fairness, Elliott did reshape and get new themes out of a 35 year old woman coming to terms with not getting married and the inspired madness of making the manic above mentioned “Not Getting Married Today” a number about gay panic. But these shows are decidedly small when compared to the extravaganza that Timbers put together , which should have won the big season.
BEST SCORE
SHOULD WIN: Six;
WILL WIN: A Strange Loop;
WOULD HAVE WON: Six
The music is the biggest strength and one of the best written scores of this decade, the only real point of Six and it is by far the superior score. The music is fun, contemporary, and catchy, and the lyrics so clever and witty in relaying the historical context (Catherine of Aragon’s “No Way” features lyrics lifted from an actual speech Catherine gave to the Blackfriars), so breezy and well done it’s easy to dismiss how good it is. but I sense a sweep being manufactured which will send it to the show with the most other merits. I’d also like to think in a more competitive year when there were other strong alternatives, there may not be a sweep of Strange Loop, which would give Six the opportunity to shine where it should.
BEST BOOK
SHOULD WIN: A Strange Look;
WILL WIN: A Strange Loop;
WOULD HAVE WON: Jagged Little Pill
Strange Loop is the one inspired spot in a lightweight other half-season, but the dark depths of Diablo Cody’s book for Jagged Little Pill would have prevailed, even despite the trans community’s best efforts to cancel the show over butt hurt casting decisions.
BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
SHOULD WIN: MJ
MJ; WILL WIN: MJ;
WOULD HAVE WON: Moulin Rouge
Here’s the one category that love him or hate him and everything that’s associated with him, the dance numbers are getting the attention one would expect from a Michael Jackson musical. I would like to think that with a real contender like the 3-ring circus of Moulin Rouge, the spectacle would win.
BEST COSTUMES
SHOULD WIN: William Ivey Long (Diana);
WILL WIN: Gabriellla Slade (Six); WOULD HAVE WON:
Catherine Zuber (Moulin Rouge)
Critics tackled Diana before it arrived, but whatever one thought, Long nailed the looks of not only Diana’s signature couture but the stuffy look of the Queen, the pink fluffy frill of Barbara Cartland, and all the various military and ceremonial looks of the palace in his 110+ costume plot. But his efforts will sink with the ship and Slade will win for her six inspired pop divas meet Starlight Express performance costumes mixing Tudor regal attire and Beyoncé. Inspired touch—Anne Boleyn and Katheryn Howard wear chokers to cover the results of their beheading . But Zuber’s extravaganza costume plot would have trumped the queens.
BEST SET
SHOULD WIN: Company;
WILL WIN: Company;
WOULD HAVE WON: Moulin Rouge
Company has received praise over it’s functional set but I don’t see any windmills or elephants.
BEST LIGHTING
SHOULD WIN: Six;
WILL WIN: Six;
WOULD HAVE WON: Six
Here’s where staging the show as a pop concert pays off, with all the glamourous and showy lighting. Excellent lighting with intent and purpose creating excitement is what should always win.
BEST PLAY
SHOULD WIN: The Lehman Trilogy;
WILL WIN: The Lehman Trilogy;
WOULD HAVE WON: The Lehman Trilogy
When you can somehow make a multi generational tale of immigrants make good to become the ruling financial trust of a country and make it sexy and exciting, you’re doing something right.
BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
SHOULD WIN: Take Me Out;
WILL WIN: Take Me Out;
WOULD HAVE: Take Me Out
It’s been 20 years since the debut of this thought-provoking piece and not one professional athlete has come out since while still playing. Obviously we’ve learned nothing since , and a top quality cast of TV and stage actors show us and give this theatrical event the exposure it deserves. Grey’s Anatomy’s Jessie Williams is a revelation (beyond the leaked photos) and should handily cop a win for Best Featured Actor over Modern Family’s Jessie Tyler Ferguson, but never underestimate the power of the bigger Hollywood name.
GOT ROBBED: I’m sure there’s some fine print about timing, but the superior should have been Best Play of 2020-2021, Slave Play made a limited run return that should have given it a chance at Best Revival. At least I’d like to think there is, or else Tony botched it again failing to give this groundbreaking look at interracial relationships the recognition it deserves.