Can I tell you again how badly I was caught off-guard for this weekend’s Tony awards because of simple ennui. Broadway has been on an assault of it’s audience since Covid. New Broadway was going to show their audiences what they need to be seeing, and the audiences are being asked to fork over hundreds of dollars a ticket to be instructed on what they need to like. Contrast that with my current experiences as a national tour critic in Baltimore and the Kennedy Center, watching shows that got beat up in New York be perfectly wonderful (and critically and financially successful) on the road. Audiences are voting with their dollars and there New York is coming up short. I honestly had to put more effort than usual into this write-up because honestly I didn’t care about 90% of the offerings in New York this season (which is fine, because most of it’s going to be gone by September). And the handful of things I did care about, the critics took care of blasting so I couldn’t. I pray this trend of forced superiority ends soon and we level back to a Broadway that really is for everyone, not the just the superior and rich. My advice, if any of these shows sound interesting, rush up this summer because most will be gone by Labor Day.
Here’s this year’s analysis.
BEST MUSICAL
SHOULD WIN: The Outsiders; WILL WIN: Suffs
This is going to be another battle of the wills. The Outsiders, a beloved cult youth novel and movie for a generation with an unassuming melodic score that is era-accurate, tuneful, and good storytelling with a fresh, youthful cast of unknowns looking to break out. Suffs is the issue musical, aimed at women and lesbian issues with more of a veteran cast. The Outsiders could be the breath of fresh air the Tonys need to give themselves relevancy. But they will most likely go with the standard route, mostly because they’re all too old for The Outsiders to have mattered to them in any media.
GOT ROBBED: Back to the Future. While this was totally expected (“another musical from a movie!!!“), one can’t ignore the stellar performances, the big exciting dance numbers, and the special effects that aid in thrilling storytelling. They would never give it a win. But it deserved a nomination.
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Hell’s Kitchen; Illinoise These are the critical darlings, the Alicia Keys jukebox musical and the dance piece that uses that medium to tell its story.
BEST ACTOR
SHOULD WIN: Eddie Redmayne (Cabaret); WILL WIN: Jonathan Groff (Merrily We Roll Along)
This one is pretty much a given with all the critical accolades the show has received. Merrily has infamously been Sondheim’s biggest and greatest repeated flop, a story told in reverse that has never worked–the original production closed in days. Groff’s geniality may be the thing in his favor to make audiences accept him. He must be doing something right, because he’s the only name on any audience or critic’s lips. Which is ironic because Tony is an infamous star-effer and the shallow committee is envious of and in love with all things Hollywood. Any movie or TV personality is almost guaranteed a win. The high priced Oscar winner imported from Britain in the best selling show of the year is actually a reasonable contender to justify that, but they won’t because Sondheim also died last year. Merrily could sweep as a posthumous tribute to him alone.
GOT ROBBE: Cory Cott (Heart of Rock and Roll), Roger Bart (Back to the Future), Bart is only a slight robbery, because they placed him in the supporting category, although Doc Brown is a co-lead to Marty McFly, and a Tony winner in the role is proof that he should be in the more impressive category. Perhaps this was to split co-stars Bart and newcomer Casey Likes in different categories, but it’s really just a matter of semantics. The snooty committee will award Bart neither award, so the appropriately higher profile nomination would have been more representative of the work he’s actually doing and the star power he brings to the show. Cott is amazing in another jukebox show the committee refuses to consider. Much like he carried and sold Bandstand to no appreciation. Sometimes a performance transcends the material. But that was Broadway’s strongest year this millennium. This year is far from that
BEST ACTRESS
SHOULD WIN: Kelli O’Hara (Days of Wine and Roses); WILL WIN: Maleah Joi Moon (Hell’s Kitchen)
A battle of the veteran Tony winner who gave a bravura performance in lesser received musical and the newcomer who made a splash in a contemporary piece. They will use this slot to give the show one of it’s few wins and look like they are more hip than they are.
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Gayle Rankin (Cabaret). In the showy, awards-bait role of Sally Bowles, Rankin is turning heads and maybe more than Redmayne even. But being an no-name outsider from Britain will handicap her with the judges.
BEST FEATURED ACTOR
SHOULD WIN: Daniel Radcliffe (Merrily We Roll Along); WILL WIN: Daniel Radcliffe (Merrily We Roll Along)
Radcliffe has proven in every Broadway appearance that he is a consummate actor, from the daring debut in Equus to learning to sing and dance (amongst the most amazing male dancers Broadway has to offer) as the bona fide star of How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying. He can do nothing wrong and he constantly proves he’s bigger than Harry Potter. Plus Radcliffe is the Hollywood star power actor that elevates his cast mates to the performances they give. This is the star that the committee is justified in being enamored with
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Brandon Victor Dixon (Hell’s Kitchen) If they doubt Radcliffe in a musical (which would be silly considering they gave Best Actor in a Musical to Tony Shalhoub who didn’t sing in The Bands’ Visit). Dixon is a star-in-the-making who has been on the rise since he hit Hamilton, and then exploded on NBC’s amazing Jesus Christ Superstar. This could be his time for this role.
GOT ROBBED: Hugh Coles (Back to the Future). Shoving Roger Bart into this category took a spot away that should have gone to the real featured actor in the cast. Coles is hysterical recreating the mousy lunacy of Crispin Glover in the movie, and the best thing in the show outside of the car.
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS
SHOULD WIN: Bebe Neuwirth (Cabaret); WILL WIN: Lindsay Mendez (Merrily We Roll Along)
Neuwirth wrenches the show away from the glitzy KitKat entertainers with her emotional portrayal of an old woman who sacrifices a last chance at happiness just to stay alive. But like Groff, Mendez has been the only name on the tip of anyone’s tongue. Credit her likeability also with the reason this banged up show can work.
GOT ROBBED: Melody A. Betts (The Wiz) . This is the biggest larceny of the night. Overlooking Betts who commands the show and walks off with it in her powerhouse deliver of “Don’t Nobody Bring Me No Bad News” as Evillene, the wickedest witch of the west ever, is unforgivable. Any other year she should have won. And I’d argue she should have this year too.
BEST REVIVAL
SHOULD WIN: Cabaret; WILL WIN: Merrily We Roll Along
Merrily We Roll Along has never worked. In any media. Not the movie it’s based on, not the original production which closed days after it opened, not any regional revival ever. The script is stacked against it by using a backwards storytelling mechanism about a group of college friends destined for greatness who achieve it, but at the expense of their friendship and their souls. So we meet them at their worst and are supposed to care for them in the end, when it’s an exercise in too little, too late. But put in a congenial cast, a movie star, and stage it right after Stephen Sondheim’s death and it’s a recipe to award him the best posthumous gift they could. This one’s been destined from the day it was conceived. Who’s going to buck the Emperor’s new clothes.
GOT ROBBED: Spamalot; The Wiz. These two revivals were arguably better than their original incarnations. The reviews in DC and Baltimore and the road were off the pages. But snooty New York critics found no love. they wouldn’t have given them the award they want St. Stephen to have, but the nomination would have been appreciated and have helped business.
BEST DIRECTION
SHOULD WIN: Maria Friedman (Merrily We Roll Along); WILL WIN: Maria Friedman (Merrily We Roll Along)
Assuming the show actually miraculously works, the press and the public give all the praise and credit to the actors. As a director, I know how important a director would be to that process. If it in fact works, it took the director who took on the handicapped piece that has never worked and made it make sense. Friedman is the true star of the show. Even if it was only moderately successful, she’d still have done the impossible.
BEST SCORE
SHOULD WIN: Stereophonic; WILL WIN: Suffs
I’m going off the board here with the bold decision. In an era of lackluster new scores and the only memorable music being from jukebox musicals, oddly enough the most thrilling and engaging score since Covid is from a play–the mock Fleetwood Mac music written to flesh out the recording session in Stereophonic (a stand-in for Rumours in a brilliant almost track for track parody). Suffs is getting all the attention but honestly after Jen Colello’s cute opening number, the score deteriorates to standard contemporary drivel. The current state of modern theatre scores is Sondheim wannabes who aren’t anywhere near Sondheim’s mastery level. But Suffs is somehow the show most poised to sweep, if the tunnel-visioned Tony committee sees fit to run that way. the best way to shake up the sleepy contemorary composers is to give the honor to the actual best score of the season, Stereophonic, which is a genuinely good, listenable rock album.
POTENTIAL SPOILER: The Outsiders is fresh, melodic, and an engaging score of tuneful songs that work well to tell a beloved story. I’m unsure why it’s not getting much attention when it’s one of the stronger musicals to have emerged post-Covid
BEST BOOK
SHOULD WIN: The Outsiders; WILL WIN: Suffs
It’s the same story as with Best Score and Best Musical. The voters are too old for The Outsiders to have mattered, so it’s not affecting them the way it is younger audiences. Look for the Suffs sweep to continue here with their women’s and lesbian issues story.
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Hell’s Kitchen The jukebox musical is being praised for the book that makes it not “just another jukebox musical”. If they feel that strongly about it, it could win. But it’s still a jukebox musical, which they clearly disdain.
BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
SHOULD WIN: Illinoise; WILL WIN: Illinoise
Illinoise is a dance musical, with all the stories told in dance to mostly instrumental music. It would be a slap in the face to give Best Choreography to anyone else.
BEST COSTUMES
SHOULD WIN: Cabaret; WILL WIN: Cabaret
Cabaret is the show that serves up visual and emotional style. The edgy performance wear is the best of the season.
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Suffs; The Great Gatsby. If they want something more conventional, the period garb of Suffs or the jazz age glamour of Gatsby could be an upset
BEST SET
SHOULD WIN: Here Lies Love; WILL WIN: Here Lies Love
The unlikely Filipino disco musical about the life of Imelda Marcos gutted the Broadway theatre and turned it into a state of the art discotheque complete with a revolving stage in the middle of the dance floor, satellite stages throughout the standard stage, mezzanine, and balcony, with multimedia video screens and a DJ booth controlling the evening. The transformation should make anything else lesser and uninspired in comparison.
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Cabaret; Back to the Future. Cabaret does similar but on a much less grande scale, and the real star of Back to the Future is the set and the storytelling that it us used for, especially in the iconic clocktower climax staging and the car that appears and disappears miraculously, complete with residual firetracks where it left time.
BEST LIGHTING
SHOULD WIN: Back to the Future; WILL WIN: Illinoise
Again, for all it’s advanced technical precision, Back to the Future is the kind of show the small minded Tony committee loves to hate. The dance lighting for Illinoise will take the award
GOT ROBBED: Here Lies Love It was a freaking discotheque musical, the club lighting that melded seamlessly with projections and multi-media and other storytelling devices was a no-brainer for the best lighting period. How do you acknowledge the set without paying tribute to the intense light show that made the set work like it does?
BEST PLAY
SHOULD WIN: Stereophonic; WILL WIN: Stereophonic
This is the story a generation has waited for yet never knew they needed: a “fictional” 70s rock band (3 men, 2 women) gather to record their latest album, after an era of hook-ups and break-ups, and pouring all their feelings into their music. Add a table full of drugs and brilliant mock rock score and you basically have the story of Fleetwood Mac recording their landmark album Rumours, (to all the children who think Taylor Swift invented writing a song when you break up with a guy, in 1976 Fleetwood Mac made their exes play instruments and sing back up) without having to pay them any of the royalties. The fact that they composed their own excellent rock score to tell the story is enough to set this play apart from the pack.
GOT ROBBED: The Shark is Broken. Ian Shaw’s recreation of his father’s “drunk diaries” from his days filming the initial 70s megahit Jaws, is a fun and informative account of the tensions on the set caused by personality clashes between his father and Richard Dreyfus as well as frustrations about the shoot that was constantly stalled as the actors were holed up on the boat while the mechanical shark constantly broke down during filming. Shaw also played his father for another level of realism, and the show and actors all got robbed of recognition (partly because half the nominations went to the deserving male-heavy cast of Stereophonic)