I keep forgetting the Oscars are coming up since they moved the date up a month. Plus, with all the awards out there, they sadly don’t seem so exciting as they used to. Now the Globes go into the BAFTAs goes into the SAGs and who even knows anymore. Plus there were so many external factors this year to consider. I just miss when Oscar night was special, but Hollywood has ruined that. Anyway, The 2025 Oscars go to…..
BEST PICTURE
Should Win: Conclave
Will Win: The Brutalist
Spoiler: Anora
Let’s get all the controversy out immediately. This category has been all over the map this season. There was a point where the criticical favorite was Emilia Perez, in support of its trans-positive story—a French musical movie about a Mexican drug lord who hires Zoe Saldana to arrange a sex chabge for himin the Middle East. Yes, you heard that correctly. That is, until best actress favorite Karla Sofia Gascon was found to be making offensive racist Tweets and the industry wanted to distance themselves from her. And this is the problem with Hollywood. Neither of these are criteria for a best film. It made me feel better though because the film is garbage. I mean one of the worst movies I’ve ever seen not starring Tom Cruise. I mean LaLa Land horrible. I couldn’t even sit through it. That threw the whole race into a tailspin and honestly any of these could win. The Brutalist will win because it’s freshest in the voters’ short attention spans.
BEST ACTOR
Should Win: Adrian Brody
Will Win: Timothee Chalamet
Spoiler: Sebastian Stan
Every Awards season has its upset and no one is beloved more than Chalomet for now. Brody will probably still win and he deserves it, but let’s make the evening interesting. But don’t count out Stan who’s performance as our now President in the first awards since he’s been angering the liberal voting masses may just be the best timing of any nominee
BEST ACTRESS
Should Win: Cynthia Erivo
Will Win : Demi Moore
Spoiler: Fernanda Torres
Let’s be clear. I’m not one of the musical theatre fans who blindly thinks Erivo is the second coming of Jesus (despite what the Hollywood Bowl says). But the 98% of the population who are not musical theatre maniacs aren’t either, and her pretentious behaviour and internet bullying are doing her no favors (see my Wicked review for elaboration). But everyone loves a comeback story and Moore has been dead to Hollywood for so long hers is not so much a comeback as a case of necromancy. But Torres won enough early awards to still be a contender. I concede, as much as I dislike Erivo’s off-screen behaviour, one must acknowledge her sheer talent. And none of the other actresses performed their roles singing while flying upside-down.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Should Win: Keiran Culkin
Will Win: Keiran Culkin
Culkin has become the awards circuit darling as the child of Kit Culkin who overcame his shitty parentage. Emmy loves him. Oscar will follow.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Should Win: Ariana Grande
Will Win: Zoe Saldana
Will Oscar throw baby Zoe out with the tainted Emilia Perez bathwater? I doubt it but Grande made an impressive debut to pick up the pieces if they do. Again, not a Wicked fanatic, just a truthful critic who Grande legitimately impressed. If she had been allowed to tell Glinda’s whole story instead of just half of it, she’d be a lock.
BEST DIRECTOR
Should Win: Brady Corbet
Will Win: Brady Corbet
Bet you were expecting a “Got Robbed” for John Chu’s magnificent vision for Wicked. But, I’m sorry, a critical part of directing is pacing and story telling, and when you movie takes longer than its entire musical source to tell half the story, you fail, Should he have been nominated? Probably. But I can understand why he wasn’t.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Should Win: Nickel Boys
Will Win: Conclave
A consolation prize for not getting the big one.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Should Win: Anora
Will Win: A Real Pain
Got Robbed: Saturday Night
This is one of those Hollywood honoring its own with Jesse Eisenberg stretching himself. Sad that the fast-paced compelling screenplay that told the real time rollercoaster ride of the 90 minutes before the first episode of NBC juggernaut Saturday Night Live almost didn’t air was not even nominated.
EDITING
Should Win: Anora
Will Win: Anora
Spoiler: The Brutalist
The joke here is Wicked’s nomnation. The musical is 2 hours and 45 minutes including intermission and scene changes. Chu’s movie version takes the same amount of time to tell Act 1. What the hell did they edit?
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Should Win: The Brutalist
Will Win: The Brutalist
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Should Win: Wicked
Will Win: Wicked
Spoiler: The Brutalist
Wicked is undoubtedly one of the most sumptuous and opulent movies designed in decades, and with minimal CGI (did you hear about the 9 million real rainbow tulips?) If the excessive running time did any aspect of the movie a favor it was languoring over the visual beauty of the movie.
SOUND DESIGN
Should Win: Wicked
Will Win: Dune pt 2
Oscar has no appreciation of balancing sound for a musical, especially one making the questionable decision to ever sing live, so the only big special effects movie will take it
COSTUME DESIGN
Should Win: Wicked
Will Win: Wicked
This is the one category where Wicked cannot lose. Be satisfied, theatre folk.
HAIR & MAKEUP DESIGN
Should Win: The Substance
Will Win: The Substance
A fantasy movie about literally turning back time on aging? That’s Hollywood
VISUAL EFFECTS
Should Win: Wicked
Will Win: Dune pt 2
Again, as impressive as Wicked is in the tech categories, the sci-fi action film will top it. Of course, give the movie credit for fleshing things out is school in real life and not relying on visual effects as much a usual today
DOCUMENTARY
Should Win: No Other Land
Will Win: No Other Land
INTERNATIONAL FILM
Should Win: I’m Still Here
Will Win: I’m Still Here
Got Robbed: Emilia Perez
Maybe there’s a half a chance they’ll throw their former darling the tiniest bone so they don’t look like complete fools for the first half of awards season.
ANIMATED FEATURE
Should Win: Inside Out 2
Will Win: The Wild Robot
Spoilwe: Flow
Once upon a time, Disney had a lock on this category. Now they only win for movies they shouldn’t and lose for movies that should win. It’s basically an even playing field
SONG
I have no idea. They aren’t even going to do performances this year. That’s how little the Academy cares about this year’s slate of songs. Let’s go with the one by their buddy Elton John.