2025 Tony Predictions

So it’s Tony night again. What used to be a the Superbowl of Broadway has devolved into a 3 hour commercial for whatever the Tony Committee wants to promote any particular season. For the first time since Covid, the Tony’s have decided that Ariana deBose isn’t quite the equivalent of Neil Patrick Harris or Hugh Jackman they tried to make her to be, and have hired last year’s Pride of Broadway, Cynthia Erivo to host. It’s an odd choice, as she’s known more for her musical prowess than her personality (which wore many thin on the neverending press junket for Wicked that should pick up this Sunday evening for the unnecessary second part of the film coming out this Holiday season). But we are due for a change.

The story this year isn’t so much as the Awards, it’s been a moderately interesting season with a few bright spots that should be a pretty by-the-numbers evening as far as wins. But the backstage drama stirred up by an obnoxious punk reporter at the New Yorker Magazine may effect the results more than any other talent, performances, or even good old favoritism.

The whole story (for anyone who missed it, from the beginning): an obnoxious, overreaching reporter manipulated a month’s old scenario and misrepresented the players. Way back at the beginning of the season, Patti LuPone and Mia Farrow opened a small two character comedy, The Roommate. Their theatre butts up to the Schubert, where the Alicia Keyes jukebox musical Hell’s Kitchen. plays, and the amplified music from that show was clearly audible in the quieter neighboring theatre where LuPone and Farrow were performing. Patti, uncharacteristically, did the right thing from the beginning by the book. She contacted the theatre landlords via letter asking them to dampen the sound at certain points to not interfere with their show and the audience who paid to see it. They kindly obliged and Patti sent the landlords and the sound engineers who accommodated her request floral arrangements for their efforts. Enter actress Kecia Lewis, who received a Best Featured Actress Tony for the piece, who got her feelings hurt and made an issue of it in a social media post, stepping out of line, stating that when a white person calls black music “loud”, it is a racist “microaggression” that should not be tolerated. And then she expected Patti to take that lying down, which she surprisingly did for the longest time. Enter Queen of Broadway Audra McDonald who added a “like” on Lewis’ post, which we all know was just a show of solidarity for another African American actor acquaintance, but that “like” also was implied to support her unfounded cries of racism. Even so, the outspoken LuPone stayed silent. Until last month when the asshole reporter baited her with leading questions, and even pointing out that a white actress approached white men and exchanged pleasantries and flowers and solved a problem caused by a black musical, in which she was deemed a racist.

That lit the bomb. Let’s review the facts:
1) Patti took the high road and approached the producers about a business matter that effected her workplace in a totally appropriate, professional manner.
2) Lewis got her feelings hurt and inserted herself in the middle of it and blasted Patti in print, implying she was a racist. Strong accusations these days. By definition, libel.
3) Audra chose to get involved and sided with Lewis, most likely on one aspect of her story, but by association, also could be interpreted as supporting her views on Patti’s “racism”.
4) The little bitch at the New Yorker baited Patti, and unfortunately she took the bait and blasted Lewis back for her caustic remarks, and simply said she and Audra weren’t friends. adding “Typical Audra”.
5) Go back to (1), where Lewis threw the first stone, and charges of racism today are not taken lightly.
6) How about the basic fact that if your music is heard in another building where people are paying top dollar to be transported into another story, that is the most basic, inarguable definition of “too loud”

Sad fact is the whole scenario was silly and avoidable, but then the always toxic Broadway social media “fandom” latched on to the facts as manipulated in the article, and suddenly Patti universally is a racist, and cries to “cancel Patti” were in every misinformed lip made a huge mess out this. Oprah’s puppet Gayle King tried to get involved and bait Audra, who remained classy and refused to further the foolishness, stating merely she and Patti hadn’t seen each other in 11 years and changed the subject. Patti even did the unthinkable–she apologized to Lewis and Audra and retracted her poorly thought comments in the interview.

Relevance to this year’s awards? This all occurred was timed to occur during the last week of voting, and there was an outcry of support for Audra. Anyone who waited til the deadline had the opportunity to show their loyalty to Audra, giving her a vote that had nothing to do with her competitiion against the sublime Nicole Sherzinger, but with a fabricated competition wiht LuPone, who has absolutely nothing to do with the Awards this year.

Was Patti wrong? Initially, absolutely not. After the interview, definitely. Was Lewis wrong? 100%. It was a production issue that was none of her business and she made it racial issue for self-exposure. Was Audra wrong? Touchy issue but yes, slightly. Social media doesn’t provide the luxury to pick what parts of posts a “like” pertains to, and it implies the entirety. Audra rose above this week. Patti made conciliatory efforts to both actresses and the community. Lewis, the one with the least on the line who started it all, has remained silent, which speaks of her character.

Rant over the obnoxious overreaction to a ridiculous situation, over. Let’s enjoy the evening as best we can under the circumstances. All I know is whoever is producing the Awards this year is missing a golden opportunity to give the show a rousing start by hiring Audra and Patti to open the show performing “Bosom Buddies”. The ratings numbers they could rake in this year…..

BEST MUSICAL

SHOULD WIN: Maybe Happy Ending; WILL WIN: Maybe Happy Ending

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Dead Outlaw

The new Darrin Criss musical about two Korean robots who discover love as well as humanity is taking the critical world by storm. The 11:00 entrance of Dead Outlaw into the game, which swept the off-Broadway season when it was there, and has a pedigree of Tony winning composer David Yazbek (The Full Monty, The Band’s Visit) trying country western/bluegrass as his medium of choice this time, could complicate things. The audience favorite is Death Becomes Her, but, as a movie to stage version, despite it’s stellar performances, big laughs and stunning sets and costumes, it’s not the “high art” Tony likes to pretend it exalts.

BEST ACTOR

SHOULD WIN: Tom Francis (Sunset Boulevard); WILL WIN: Jonathan Groff (Just in Time)

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Darren Criss (Maybe Happy Ending)

The recent Olivier Winner Francis is the breakout performance of the season, and his Act 2 live walk through the theatre district as her performs the title song live and remote before entering from the back of the house to finish it on stage is the talk of the town, a game changing technique. But not only is Francis an out of town Brit, he’s also got the Andrew Lloyd Webber stigma attached to his name. Late season entry Groff as pop singer Bobby Darren is pure audience delight and a Tony favorite. Taking nothing away form Groff, Francis should win, but the voters will give the American favorite son the award. But, to complicate things further, Groff won last year for Merrily We Roll Along ,so don’t count out Criss, who has an Emmy and a Golden Globe to his name. His charisma is a big asset to why Happy Ending works.

BEST ACTRESS

SHOULD WIN: Nicole Scherzinger (Sunset Boulevard); WILL WIN: Audra McDonald (Gypsy)

This is the race of the evening and it appears (on the surface) a literal dead heat. One faction adores Scherzinger’s breathtaking new spin as the timeless character of Norma Desmond (fresh off a well-deserved Olivier Award), singing the brilliant Andrew Lloyd Webber power ballads unlike any American performer ever has, and giving the performance of her life. The other half thinks Audra and her six Tonys can do no wrong ever. My take is that, while McDonald is never anything short of phenomenal in a role, this is a stretch for stretching’s sake. She’s in a lot of new territory, especially vocally, and her voice is not a great match for the score. Sometimes she has to rely too heavily on her legitimate soprano in a belt alto song, other times she ends up scream-acting a lot. Her acting is a new, trashier take on the role, which is revelatory, but she’s not the best Rose I’ve ever seen, and this isn’t even her best work. She doesn’t need an unprecedented seventh Tony for this role. Scherzinger is tragically sublime and, stripped of all theatrical accoutrements, gives a bare bones rawness to Norma’s pain. Scherzinger is radiant, giving the performance of her life. Audra is giving another great performance. There’s a difference. But Audra owns the Broadway community and if they voted after that shitty New Yorker article came out it could be a runaway for her.

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Jasmine Amy Rogers (Boop!)  Rogers’ surprise victory, alongside McDonald, as one of the two Best Performers (annoying) at last week’s Drama Desk Awards show there is some critical interest in her even over the sublime Scherzinger. Since theirs is now a genderless category, we have no idea if she got more or less votes than Audra. But she somehow got more than Nicole, which is shocking but may be telling.

BEST FEATURED ACTOR

SHOULD WIN: Danny Burstein (Gypsy); WILL WIN: Taylor Trensch (Floyd Collins)

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Everyone Else

Somehow, the role of milquetoast Herbie in a musical that showcases powerful woman has been Tony bait for the last few to play him. Burstein is the best yet, bringing new, interesting layers to his mousy character. But after Tony trying relentlessly to make Burstein happen for decades, he finally won for his tour de force turn as the outlandish emcee Harry Zidler in Moulin Rouge. Trensch (Hello, Dolly, To Kill a Mockingbird, Dear Evan Hansen, Camelot), a younger performer with a great resume of character roles in his short career, with a gentler, more sympathetic role could beat him this year. This is literally the widest open category in the race and you can’t count out Jak Malone for his scene stealing moments in Operation Mincemeat, or Brooks Ashmankus, who with a showy role that is the only real chance Smash has at taking home anuthing, is the heir to the performer that Tony has been trying to make happen since Burstein finally took home his title.

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS

(SHOULD WIN: Natalie Venetia Belcon (Buena Vista Social Club); WILL WIN: Justina Machado (Real Women Have Curves)

This is a leading lady season, supporting roles are not as showy. Belcon (most famous for playing Gary Coleman in Avenue Q) gives one of the season’s flashier performances as Cuban singer Omaro Portuondo in the story of making the landmark album, but Machado (Six Feet Under, One Day at a Time reboot) is a popular TV name who provides her usual comic relief in the other feel good musical, and Tony, for all the self-importance they attach to their art, loves when Hollywood comes to visit.

BEST REVIVAL

SHOULD WIN: Sunset Boulevard; WILL WIN: Sunset Boulevard

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Floyd Collins

This is the only showdown between Sunset Boulevard where Gypsy is nowhere in the mix. The last minute entry of Jeremy Jordan’s Floyd Collins, the acclaimed musical that has taken 30 years to get to Broadway, is a sentimental favorite. But even the erratic and unpredictable Tony, for all their notorious anti-ALW prejudices and shortcomings, should make the correct decision.

BEST DIRECTION

SHOULD WIN: Michael Arden (Maybe Happy Ending); WILL WIN: Michael Arden (Maybe Happy Ending)

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Jamie Lloyd (Sunset Boulevard)

When he was robbed for his artistically brilliant Once On This Island, Arden became the most bankable visionary to have never won. Until last year, for his most conventional creation yet, Parade. This year is another visionary show, like his reimagined Island, but bigger, more sentimental, and starting from scratch. If they hold last year against him (which they shouldn’t), look for Lloyd’s highly inspired, stripped down, high tech vison of Sunset Boulevard, the forerunner for the first half of the season, to win. There is something to be said for removing all the visual nostalgic magic and somehow ending up with a greater result. Plus never overlook the Tonys anti-Brit, anti-ALW prejudice.

BEST SCORE

SHOULD WIN: Will Aronson & Hue Park (Maybe Happy Ending); WILL WIN: David Yasbek & Erik Della Penna (Dead Outlaw)

Aronson & Park have created the sentimental favorite, but this is the best category to give a win to Dead Outlaw, which has a substantial number of other nominations

BEST BOOK

SHOULD WIN: Will Aronson & Hue Park (Maybe Happy Ending); WILL WIN: Will Aronson & Hue Park (Maybe Happy Ending)

Aronson & Park’s uplifting, original book is the impetus for the show’s success. This one seems the lock. It’s competition, Dead Outlaw and Project Mincemeat, are based on other sources and a little too edgy for the predictable Tony voters.

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY

SHOULD WIN: Jerry Mitchell (Boop!); WILL WIN: Patricia Delgado & Justin Peck (Buano Vista Social Club)

Mitchell’s energetic, flashy dances are the best part of the otherwise flimsy musical, and what is responsible for it’s success. But the throwback style isn’t appreciated by the more self-important Tonys today. Delgado and Peck, on the other hand, are using dance to tell a bigger story. Tony will reward them.

BEST COSTUMES

SHOULD WIN: Paul Tazewell (Death Becomes Her); WILL WIN: Paul Tazewell (Death Becomes Her)

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Gregg Barnes (Boop!)

There is nothing as over-the-top elegant and elaborate as Tazewell’s stunning sequin and rhinestoned creations that echo the galourous elements of the story. She should walk away with the win, but Barnes’ flashy, jazz nightclub designs, especially a catch set of costumes that switch alternatingly from technicolor to black & white and back and forth are pretty eye-catching and may attract some notice.

BEST SET

SHOULD WIN: Dane Laffrey & George Reeve (Maybe Happy Ending); WILL WIN: Dane Laffrey & George Reeve (Maybe Happy Ending)

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Derek McLane (Death Becomes Her)

Laffrey and Reeve’s set is one of the marvels of the intimate piece, and will probably ride the wave. But McLane’s sets for Death Becomes Her are truly impressive, just in a more traditional way

BEST LIGHTING

SHOULD WIN: Jack Knowles (Sunset Boulevard); WILL WIN: Jack Knowles (Sunset Boulevard)

POTENTIAL SPOILER: Tyler Micoleau (Buena Vista Social Club). 

Tony voters know nothing about lights and consider “Best Lights” and “Most Lights” the same. Sunset Boulevard, with no set is a visual, visceral show, and the lights and media are the only thing acting as a set, so they are more integral and more obvious. If they want something more subtle and integrated into the musical, they may throw the artsy vote to Micoleau

BEST PLAY

Oh Mary! by Cole Escola

This is Cole Escola’s night, as the playwright, creator, and star of the biggest play of the season, an almost impossible ticket to get, a hysterical look at a drunken, psychotic Mary Todd Lincoln who wants to be a cabaret star instead of First Lady when a fateful night at the Theatre changes everythnig. Look for the play, the star, the director, and the very underrated Conrad Ricamora (How to Get Away With Murder, Fire Island, Here Lies Love, Little Shop of Horrors) to take Best Featured Actor as a very Gay-braham Lincoln. Best Actress will be Sarah Snook who plays all 26 roles in the one-woman Portrait of Dorian Gray.

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