It seems like just last week Will Smith was bitchslapping Chris Rock and getting rewarded for it, but it turns out Oscar night 2023 is here. Admittedly I don’t carry the fascination for this night I once did after the Academy has fumbled it repeatedly and worse since the Covid break, but it’s tradition. All my Facebook memories of Oscar nights past are testimonies to those who look to my analysis for humor or a heads up on the Oscar pools. This season has many interesting entries but the succession of every awards show prior seems to leave little surprise, making it sadly less analysis and more “well this won everything so far”. But leave it to Oscar to screw up something sure on its own. This year’s predictions:
BEST PICTURE
Should Win: Everything, Everywhere, All at Once
Will Win: Everything, Everywhere, All at Once
Spoiler: All Quiet on the Western Front
All Quiet is a superior, sweeping war movie made from a classic novel and fully deserves the win. But Everything, Everywhere is not only popular but unlike anything we’ve ever seen. Add in a full cast giving game performances and its track record sweeping the awards.
BEST ACTOR
Should Win: Austin Butler
Will Win: Austin Butler
Spoiler: Brendan Fraser
Got robbed: Tom Cruise…..I couldn’t even type that shit with a straight face
Fraser is the comeback story of the season, but Butler is also the forgotten teen star wannabe that Dan Schneider and Nickelodeon tried for the better part of a decade to unsuccessfully get to take off. Add to that how Hollywood loves transformative biopics, and Butler does all his own singing, becoming the King physically, vocally, and perhaps internally. Plus he’s got all the other majors behind him and he makes the movie. As a bonus, he’s almost 100% guaranteed to be the one nominee least likely to bitchslap a presenter.
BEST ACTRESS
Should Win: Michele Yeoh
Will Win : Michelle Yeoh
Spoiler: Cate Blanchard
You’ve got Blanchard giving the performance of her career and newcomer Ana de Armas eerily transformative as possibly the first dead-on portrayal of Marilyn Monroe ever, even if the movie is a fever dream. But Yeoh does the unbelievable—leads a full on action fantasy ninja movie as a middle aged woman. Yeoh is the performance of the year and it’s all hers.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Should Win: Barry Koeghan
Will Win: Ke Huy Quan
Keoghan is heartbreakingly endearing and funny in the character performance of the year, but who’s not gonna give Short Round an Oscar for growing up and being an integral part to a critical movie.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Should Win: Stephanie Hsu
Will Win: Jamie Lee Curtis
Spoiler: Carrie Condon, Angela Bassett
Hsu gives an outstanding major film debut in the pivotal fantasy role of the movie, Condon gives the only subtle and beautiful performance of the contenders in a movie that is just falling short of numbers on the circuit, and the regal Bassett has been owed an award since they overlooked her star breaking turn as Tina Turner. But Hollywood loves and honors its legacies, and Curtis is royalty who neither her or her beloved parents have ever won. Expect a career achievement award for the performance of her career (unlike last legacy winner Laura Dern who won for a very average performance in a less then average movie).
BEST DIRECTOR
Should Win: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
Will Win: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheiner
Spoiler: Steven Spielberf
Again with the movie making such major conquests across all platform there had better not be another answer for who is responsible for that success than the Daniels. But Hollywood does have its favorites so it could happen.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Should: Women Talking
Will: Women Talking
Spoiler: All Quiet on the Western Front
Women Talking has been cleaning up as the more verbose of the two contenders. All Quiet is a brilliant telling but mostly in its vivid imagery and art direction. Save that for the technical awards. The writer in me prefers the words on the page.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Should Win: Everything, Everywhere, All at Once
Will Win: Everything, Everywhere, All at Once
Spoiler: The Banshees of Inisherin
Again, thrilling funny, and totally original, Everything Everywhere has been leading the category. But if there is an upset for the sad comedy Banshees that is getting lost in the shadows of its competition, this is the place for its subtle magic.
EDITING
Should Win: Everything, Everywhere, All at Once
Will Win: Maverick
Spoiler: Elvis
Got Robbed: Avatar
Again, the Academy on the whole doesn’t understand how crucial editing is to a modern musical, so give it to the big splashy action movies. Everything Everywhere is the obvious winner but Maverick has been playing with the voters nostalgia for their 80s roots. And although it was lackluster, how can the Academy ignore the technical expertise that went into editing Avatar. A nomination would have been enough for that one.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Will Win: Elvis
Got Robbed: Blonde; Everything, Everywhere, All at Once
The big sweeping visuals and hazards of war should have led All Quiet to the podium, but the flashy performance theatrics of Elvis seems rocking the loins of the awards circuit. Plus the Acadamy can pat themselves on the back for honoring a woman and telling themselves they are more inclusive than they are. Boo on ignoring the fever dream lens of mental illness that drove the haunting Blonde, and where is the obvious nomination for the visuals of the sweep action movie amidst all the universes?
SET DESIGN
Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Will Win: Babylon
Spoiler: Elvis
Got Robbed: Everything, Everywhere, All at Once
All the war settings are massive and ground All Quiet in reality, but Babylon has won all the designer awards from designers. Never count out the scrappy Elvis, and how many universes did all the other films design sets in that Everything Eveywhere got passed over.
SOUND DESIGN
Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Will Win: Maverick
Spoiler: Elvis
This is always the battle of the loud action movies, and although All Quiet is the better and bigger film, Maverick is the louder with fly-bys. But who knows, maybe once the Academy will understand how difficult and critical sound editing is to a musical.
COSTUME DESIGN
Should Win: Elvis
Will Win: Elvis
Spoiler: Everything, Everywhere, All at Once; Wakanda Forever
90 Flashy costumes for the King and all the period background where should take it to the top. But the big picture deserves credit for all the fantasy universes it designs for, particularly Stephanie Hsu’s over-the-top super-villain in every fantasy galaxy.
HAIR & MAKEUP DESIGN
Should Win: The Whale
Will Win: Elvis
Spoiler: Wakanda Forever
Got Robbed: Blonde
Brendan Fraser’s transformation into a 600 pound miserable man is astounding. But we’re not supposed to like fat-suits, so again, for transforming a wannabe teen idol into the quintessential teen idol of all time, Elvis will win. But weird as it is, the one thing Blonde nails is brunette Ana de Armas’ eerie transformation into perhaps the first successful portrayal of the platinum blonde bombshell Monroe.
VISUAL EFFECTS
Should Win: Avatar
Will Win: Avatar
This was the only CGI movie with big visual effects. Somehow they overlooked Disney’s live action Pinocchio
DOCUMENTARY
Should Win: Navalhny
Will Win: Navalhny
Political implications reinforce the story of the Russian opposition leader to pretty much guarantee the win.
INTERNATIONAL FILM
Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
The only international film to garner a Best Picture nomination should tell you enough
ANIMATED FEATURE
Should Win: Pinocchio
Will Win: Pinocchio
Disney gave a lazy year of entries, the most interesting being the lukewarm Lightyear. Guillermo del Toro successfully turns Disney and Collodi on their respective ears taking the 19th century classic and resetting it in WWI Italy. Gone are the fox, the cat, and Pleasure Island, and in are Mussolini and child training camps. But it works and plays into the story’s dark roots.
BEST SONG
Should Win: “”Naatu Naatu” (RRR)
Will Win: “Naatu Naatu” (RRR)
Just like Jai Ho emerged from Slumdog Millionaire, this infections song from the underrated RRR will sweep a year without an obvious radio dominating hit.